Contents amd Editor's View
Investment, Saving, Money Supply and Economic Growth in Nepalese Economy: A Nexus through ARDL Bound Testing Approach
This paper seeks to examine a nexus of investment, broad money supply and saving with economic growth of Nepal through the application of ARDL bound testing approach covering the period from 1974/75 to 2018/19 with the help of annual time series on the concerned variables. The variables except broad money supply are converted into the real terms with the help of GDP deflator with base year 2000/01 and all the variables are converted into the natural logarithm. First, broad mone supply is included into the ARDL model and long run impact of regressors on dependent variable is examined. The long run impact of investment on economic growth is found to be weak. As a result, in remodeling of ARDL, the broad money
supply variable is dropped and results are calculated with the view of examining the nexus of investment and saving on economic growth. From long run ARDL test, the investment elasticity and saving elasticity are found to be statistically significant and positive as0.066 and 0.023 respectively. The ARDL bound test shows cointegrating relations among the variables. As indicated by error correction model, short run shocks significantly affect long run relations among the variables. The departure from the longterm growth path due to short run shocks is adjusted by 9.5 % over the next yearasindicated by error correction model. This paper throws some light in policy perspective. The policies associated with saving, investment and economic growth should not contradict each other. Government should formulate saving attracting policies either through tax increase to discourage unnecessary consumption or passing new acts at local levels to encourage saving. Investment friendly policies are required to formulate to increase attraction of returned migrant youths in agriculture, fruits, livestock and other business activities with the view of promoting export and substitution of import to accelerate
economic growth in Nepal.
Keywords: nexus, bound test, diagnostics, policy perspective
JEL Classification: C51, C52, E21, E22, E60
Rajendra Adhikari. Investment, Saving, Money Supply and Economic Growth in Nepalese Economy: A Nexus through ARDL Bound Testing Approach. International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2024, pp. 3-18
Determinants of the Speed of Adjustment to Target Capital Structure: Indian Evidence
The choice of capital structure is guided by the tradeoff and pecking order theories. Whereas pecking order behaviour influences capital structure development, firms also move towards a moving target leverage, which is determined by tradeoff
considerations. To reach definite conclusions, from the empirical examination of various theoretical predictions related to different aspects of capital structure, the system is considered to be stable by assuming that firms always adjust to a target (optimal) capital structure. The present study is an attempt to identify the determinants of the speed of such adjustment of observed capital structure to target capital structure by using data of firms belonging to the Indian manufacturing sector. The model uses the firmspecific target and industryspecific target. The special focus of the study is the impact of liberalization on the speed of adjustment which is captured by introducing a structural break dummy. The methodology used is panel regression analysis. Irrespective of the fact whether a firm is adjusting to a firm –specific target or industryspecific target, the structural break dummy, size and growth rate of a firm seems to have a significant impact on the speed of adjustment.
Keywords: target capital structure, the speed of adjustment, optimality ratio, liberalisation.
JEL Classification: G32
Sumitra Naha (Das). Determinants of the Speed of Adjustment to Target Capital Structure: Indian Evidence. International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2024, pp. 19-32
A Comparative Review of Advances of Agriculture Versus Horticulture: A Study of Sikkim
Like all the hilly and mountainous regions of India, agriculture is still backward in nature in Sikkim and it is characterised by problems of diverse topography, difficult terrain, inaccessible habitation, extreme vulnerability of natural calamity, poor infrastructure and distinctive gender dimensions. In 2003 a major decision was taken by the Sikkim state government to fully adapt to organic means of agricultural production. In 2016 Sikkim was declared as the first organic state in India. The present study reviews the performance of the agriculture and horticulture sector during the period 2003 to 2016. The results of the study reveal that horticulture made a considerable progress compared to agriculture in Sikkim in the study period. To further improve the performance of the horticultural sector the state government has to take series of reform measures such as integration of production and markets, provide technical assistance to the farmers, improve transportation and warehousing facilities, improve the thrust on agriculture in terms of investment and planning and increase the area coverage of horticultural crops in the state.
Keywords: agriculture, horticulture, organic.
Deepesh Chettri. A Comparative Review of Advances of Agriculture Versus Horticulture: A Study of Sikkim. International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2024, pp. 33-41
Application of ARDL Bound Cointegration Test on Money Output Relationship in Nepalese Economy
The present paper examines the long run relationship between output level and money supply (M1 and M2) in Nepalese economy. In this process, I used the real GDP, Narrow money supply (M1) and Broad money supply (M2) as macroeconomic variables for the study. Yearly time series data for the period of 45 years (1974 /75 to 2018/19) are applied. Econometric tools including Unit root test, Akaike information criterion, ARDL Bound test, error correction. Residual diagnostic tests, stability tests are used to find the long run cointegrating relationship between the variables. I found all the variables are stationary at first differences, which is denoted as I (1). The AIC criteria indicated that ARDL (1,0) is the appropriate model for both cases (lnY lnM1 and lnY lnM2). In ARDL bound test, the F statistic is highly significant which indicates there is long run cointegrating between output level and money supply. The significant and negative value of past error as suggested byECM signifies the short run dynamics in the relationship which is corrected by error correction mechanism. Finally, the residual diagnostic and stability tests provide the information that the model is free from serial correlation, heteroscedasticity as well as it is stable.
Keywords: GDP, Money Supply, Diagnostic test, Stability test.
JEL Classification: C22, C32, E52
Arjun Kumar Baral. Application of ARDL Bound Cointegration Test on Money Output Relationship in Nepalese Economy. International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2024, pp. 43-55
Impact of COVID-19 on Marginalized Population in Triveni Tole, Ward Number 4 of Kankai Municipality
This study aims to evaluate the impact of COVID-19 on marginalized population in Triveni Tole, ward Number 4 of Kankai Municipality. This study is descriptive quantitative research design and purposive sampling technique was used for the study. Structured questionnaires containing dichotomous (Yes/No) and multiple choice type questions were used for collecting data. Simple descriptive methods and ChiSquared (x2) test was used to analyze the data. The socioeconomic and cultural lives of the respondents’ family were affected by the COVID-19 crisis. Mainly the economic crisis, shortage of food items and the psychosocial tension are adversely distressed dimensions. The findings of this study can contribute to minimizing overall impacts for the concerned stake holders. This study adds usefulness and its applicability in alleviating the problems of impact by COVID-19 pandemic at the grass root level.
Keywords: research design, cultural lives, usefulness.
Bhakti Prasad Subedi. Impact of COVID-19 on Marginalized Population in Triveni Tole, Ward Number 4 of Kankai Municipality. International Journal of Applied Economics and Econometrics, Vol. 1, No. 1, 2024, pp. 57-68